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Dr. Anwar Gargash,

Mr. Muath Alwari

Mr. Samir Saran,

Ladies and gentlemen,

First of all, let me say what a great pleasure it is to be here, joining you here at the inaugural session of Raisina Middle East.

Ten years ago, Prime Minister Modi who had just assumed office asked me why we were busy attending conferences in other countries, without holding one in our own. This exhortation led to the birth of the ‘Raisina Dialogue’ in New Delhi. In the period that followed, Raisina has undoubtedly established itself at home, while gradually spreading its wings abroad. I am particularly pleased that it has now come to the Middle East, a region of immense significance for India, though we prefer to call it West Asia. I congratulate the Raisina organizers, ORF and Samir Saran and his team in particular, as well as our UAE partners for this endeavour. And, take this opportunity to share some thoughts about Raisina, about the Middle East, about India and the World.

The history of India and the Middle East are inextricably linked. Whether it is commerce or connectivity, ideas and beliefs, or customs and traditions, we have actually seen an interplay over centuries. Interestingly, although India has influenced its extended neighbourhood in all directions, the one to our West has had the deepest impact on its own society. However, after independence, our economic development model resulted in a perceptible dilution of linkages with the world, one felt most deeply in our immediate proximity. The resulting loss of contacts and connections also saw a diminution in comfort levels. Thereafter, the era of economic reform, which began roughly three decades ago, started a reversal of this distancing. It initially progressed more the East of India and only in the last decade, has found equal expression in this part of the world. There are different metrics to assess these ups and downs in our ties. Certainly, the level and frequency of political interaction, trade volumes and the intensity of societal contacts are accurate indicators. But most of all, what shrank during this period is the conversation between our thinkers, policy makers and strategists. It is that tradition which we now seek to restore through Raisina Middle East.

Why is that important? Because, by every yardstick, this is a region crucial to India’s strategic interests. Many of you would be, familiar with the intensity of India’s ties with the Gulf. Our trade is in the region of USD 160-180 billion annually. The energy dimension is the most visible; but there is much more to it than that. Whether it is projects, technology, education, health, or services, our presence in the Gulf is both pervasive and crucial. More than 9 million Indians live and work here. But the Gulf also serves as a gateway to the MENA region and to the Mediterranean. Our annual trade with the Mediterranean incidentally is another USD 80 billion. And the Indian diaspora there is close to half a million. We have significant interests in fertilizers, energy, water, diamonds, defence and cyber. Our projects include airports, ports and railway to phosphates, green hydrogen, steel and submarine cables. Material factors aside, this larger geography is a very critical connect between the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic. And as our history underlines, there is a symbiotic relationship between us. We certainly have stakes that are continually rising; but increasingly, India also has contributions to make that would influence the direction of events.

All of this acquires a special significance in the context of the changing global order. That is a subject in itself, but for the purposes of this discussion, let me highlight a few key facets. One, the sharp departure of the United States from a century of Wilsonian foreign policy. Two, the competitive aspects of ties between two leading players, the US and China. Three, the anxiety we all share of over-concentration of manufacturing in a limited geography. And the resulting search for more reliable and resilient supply chains. Four, the growing salience of the digital world and the premium put on trust and transparency. Five, the frequent weaponization of market shares, finance and technology. Six, the unfolding I would say incipient re-globalization, that now stresses national interests and national identities, even while recognizing trans-national economic collaboration. Seven, the emergence of a global workplace, a process that is hastened by the rapid advancement of digital technologies. And Eight, a re-distribution and even regionalization of power that actually makes for much more complicated decision making. Our times have to take all these into account, these eight realities that I have spelt out, while managing some key contradictions. We are more interdependent and inter-penetrative in the very era when the propaganda of a global village stands firmly rejected.

In India, our own debates about the direction of progress highlight what Prime Minister Modi often calls the twin pillars of technology and tradition. Their dynamic is an interactive one, and that is a departure from the understanding that modernity and tradition are polar opposites. But at the global level, a different discourse is taking place. And this is a discourse which often pits progress against heritage, the future against the past. This has implications for both diplomacy and statecraft. In the name of universal norms, efforts are being made to advance a borderless culture. Its purpose of course is to create new forms of legitimacy and override national traditions, practices and even decision making. Nations and their governance are rated and ranked with an agenda in mind. The tools to influence opinion include finance and media, but most of all the power of technology. Much of the changes underway in the global order is because there is today the widespread resistance to such efforts. So, we are witnessing today both an economic and a politico-cultural pushback, sometimes the two coming together. This is really the big issue now before us. And it will re-shape the manner, not just in how societies govern themselves but also in how they approach international relations. We, in the Indian sub-continent and the Middle East, are intimately involved with both aspects and should engage with each other in that regard.

While our conversations may dwell on this broader canvas, our cooperation will naturally have more specific focus. In this world of change, challenges are best addressed and opportunities ideally exploited by forging a shared agenda and developing a common purpose. That is exactly what India is trying to do today with nations of the Gulf, MENA and the Mediterranean. There are some elements of the traditional agenda that could bear with more collaborative solutions. Food and health security are perhaps the two most obvious. There is manufacturing. Manufacturing, as it becomes more diversified. Technology, as it becomes more democratized. We are creating the basis for more broad-based growth. There is also the promise of technologies on the horizon. After all, this is now the world of AI and EV, of space and drones. We have already seen the first collaborative projects on green hydrogen and green ammonia start to take shape. There is also a serious discussion underway on overseas transmission grids. New forms of connectivity are also in the making. Enabling technology to work has also spurred greater collaboration in education and skills. Our endeavours those of India and the Middle East, can be further projected into Africa, Europe, the Caucuses and Central Asia.

As we contemplate the world ahead, it is important that we read the incipient trends accurately. A significant one is the belief in key circles in the US that its true potential has been hobbled by regimes and restrictions. Such perceptions have been fueled by assessments that others have gamed the international system to America’s disadvantage. The competitive facet of world affairs is therefore likely to increasingly overshadow the collaborative one. Finding common ground and landing points will not be that easy, or indeed, that lasting. In such a scenario, the global architecture will also be more plurilateral. Combinations of nations will come together on an agreed an specific agenda. That the world of multilateralism is now anachronistic and grid-locked, will further facilitate these tendencies. These developments naturally make a stronger case for our closer engagement.

Perhaps, there is no domain that has a stronger case for such plurilateral cooperation than that of connectivity. The truth is that the era of colonialism significantly distorted the natural connectivity within and between nations and regions. As production and consumption has diversified in the last eight decades, the case for re-engineering the flow of goods and services has only become stronger. The pandemic experience was also an instructive lesson. So too are the disruptive consequences of conflict; I just need to remind you that two serious ones are ongoing and these are cases to point. Extreme climate events are an additional cause of anxiety, as indeed even accidents in crucial supply lines. Refashioning connectivity cannot be a unilateral enterprise if it is to be effectively utilized. Currently, there are some initiatives underway that will unfold in the coming years. The IMEC and INSTC are the two most notable in this region; and India is involved in both. To our East, we are looking at both land and sea-based corridors that will actually take us to the Pacific. The Middle East will be a beneficiary when that happens. Maritime security and safety is another issue where understanding and mechanisms will have to step in to fill in global deficit. This is already underway in the Arabian and Red Seas. More First Responders are required to address the HADR situations. India has come forward to a considerable degree in this regard. But partnerships, with and amongst Middle East nations can help deal with this challenge.

As two regions long connected by the flow of peoples, it is also natural that we will have a common interest in the emergence of a global workplace. This is all the more necessary when new industries like semiconductors or electric mobility scour the world for skills and talent. The Gulf, in particular, has been a trendsetter in this regard. As Middle Eastern nations themselves explore emerging and critical technologies, as they full exploit the current and future energy potential, they will surely utilize the current foundation of good will and experience to bolster their own capabilities.

So, ladies and gentlemen, let me conclude by saying this. An India with wider interests and growing capabilities today contemplates the world with confidence. We certainly recognize the risks, but we are equally cognizant of the opportunities. For us, the Middle East is an extended neighbourhood with which we have now re-connected in full measure. It is a crucial passage to the world beyond, whether we speak of Africa or the Atlantic. It is about partners with whom we have traditions and comfort. What is needed most at this time is a deepening of our engagement, a prospect made possible today by more conversations and frequent exchanges. Raisina Middle East can make a definitive contribution in that regard and I am confident that today’s event is the first step in that direction.

I thank you for your attention.