The West Asian Scenario: Doctrinal and Political Competitions after the Arab Spring
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By: Amb. Talmiz Ahmad
Venue: IIMK,Kozhikode
Date: Nov 12, 2013
Indian Institute of Management (IIM)
Kozhikode, November 12, 2013
The West Asian Scenario: Doctrinal and political competitions After the Arab Spring
Talmiz Ahmad
Former Ambassador of India to Saudi Arabia, Oman and the UAE
The Middle East became what it is today both because the European powers undertook to re-shape it.... During and after the First World War, Britain and her Allies destroyed the old order in the region irrevocably ; they smashed Turkish rule of the Arabic-speaking Middle East beyond repair. To take its place, they created countries, nominated rulers, delineated frontiers, and introduced a state system of the sort that exists everywhere else ; but they did not quell all significant local opposition to those decisions.
The settlement of 1922, therefore, does not belong entirely or even mostly to the past ; it is at the very heart of current wars, conflicts, and politics in the Middle East....
David Fromkin, A Peace to End All Peace
The Pre-Revolution Scenario
- Political Scenario:
- Despots
- Traditional Monarchies
- The Oil Factor/Israel
- Stunted political evolution
- Pervasive sense of defeat and despair
- Economic crisis
The New Middle East: the Nahda
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times; it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness; it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity; it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness; it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair; we had everything before us, we had nothing before us; we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct toe other way..
Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities
When the people will to live
Destiny must surely respond,
And night is destined to fold
And fetters are certain to be broken.
Abul Qasim al-Shabi (Tunisian Poet)
Background :
- Unemployment
- Poverty: economic, mismanagement
- Corruption
- Transparency/Accountability
- Popular participation in the political process
What is happening in Egypt is a historical transformation which has not been witnessed by the Arab world in its modern history. What the demonstrations of the youth are demanding is not less than a complete break with the current era at all political, economic and social levels. We, nowadays, are witnessing a radical transformation in the history and geography of the Arab world..hence the Arab world, after these days, will not be as it was previously.
Dr. Hani bin Mohd, Al-Yaum (February, 2011)
Pattern in the Uprisings
- Experience of street politics:
- Tunisia
- Syria
- Egypt
- Libya
- Experience of (limited) political participation
- Bahrain
- Yemen
- Kuwait
- Jordan
- Oman
- Morocco
- Politically Inert States:
Arab Spring: The Present Scenario
- In the throes of change:
- Tunisia
- Libya
- Egypt
- Yemen
- Change halted: Bahrain
- Strategic/Sectarian Saudi-Iran confrontation in different theatres:
- Syria
- Lebanon
- Iraq
- Palestine
- Ongoing Civil conflict Syria Over 100,000 people killed; very robust GCC- West diplomatic and military intervention; the role of Russia and China
- Rumblings in: Kuwait, Oman, Jordan, Morocco
- Initial Electoral successes of Islamist Parties
Islamism or Political Islam
- Islamism is the ideology that employs Islam as a tool for political action.
- Islamism seeks to create to true Islamic society (by imposing Sharia) and set up an Islamic State made up of cultural mores, legal structures, economic policies and political order drawn from Islam.
Islamism: Historical Evolution
- The Arab renaissance: response to colonial rule
- Origin in the 1930s: authenticity, identity, dignity
- Flowering and depression in the 1970s – 1980s
- 1990s: "Islamic Constitutionalism”
- Response to the Arab Spring: from caution to governance
- Variety and competitions within Islamism
- Wahhabiya
- Ikhwaniya
- Salafiya
- Al Qaeda
- The Muslim Brotherhood
- Formation: Hassan al-Banna and his thought
- Confrontation with Nasser and the emergence of radical Islamism: Sayyid Qutb
- Rejection of the radical discourse
- Mubarak and the Brotherhood
- The Brotherhood’s political manifesto: 2004 and 2007.
- 2009-10: the ascendancy of the traditionalists
- The Challenge of the Arab Spring
- Brotherhood’s response to the Spring
- Increasing role in politics
- Electoral triumphs
- The Brotherhood in Government
- The Constitution
- Morsi’s foreign policy
- The opposition: polarization
- The coup and After
Why Toppled?
- Secular-liberal v/s Islam polarization
- threats to freedom/autocratic
- mis-governance
- failure in socio-economic areas
- no consensus-building
- the role of Salafiya
- The Armed Forces
- GCC Role
- The West
Syria: Background
- Very different evolution from Egyptian Brotherhood
- 2 wings: Damascus and Aleppo
- Aleppo wing: radicalized and jihadist
- The Hamah uprising: MB obliterated
- MB in exile: trend toward moderation
- Affiliation in Abdul Haleem Khaddam : National Salvation Front
- Direct overtures to regime (2009)
2001: "National Honour Charter” - 2004: Political Project
- Post Arab Spring: joined SNC
March 2012: "Pledge and Charter”: moderate and accommodative
Islamist Competitions in Syria
- A proxy war for the Saudi-Iranian competition: The sectarian divide
- The Intra-Sunni competition
- The FSA: backed by Saudi Arabia
- The Syrian Brotherhood: backed by Qatar
- The Radicals
- Kurds ascendant: PYD successes
Syria: the regional/global dimensions
- Lebanon and the Hizbollah factor
- The Iraqi angle
- Turkish role: the Kurdish dimension
- Arab Spring halted?
- The Sunni-Shia divide/Minorities anxious Regional alliances upturned:
- A US – Israel - GCC alliance
- Robust GCC-Iran confrontation: Moderation
- abandoned
- Middle East Peace Process on back-burner
- The US – Iran detente
- Islamist parties at the heart of Arab politics
The Future of Islamism
- The Arab Spring impact:
- MB into party politics
- Salafiya in politics: "Sahwa’/ Al-Nour
- The radicals: towards political participation?
- The Islamist – "secular” divide
- The "post-Islamism” challenge
- trend toward moderation and accommodation
- no more calls for an Islamic state: participation in pluralistic politics
- Islam-West divide weakened
- traditional organization structures weakened
- emergence of virtual communities: social networking
Islamism now an integral, vibrant and immutable part of global politics and culture
Self-reform and the promotion of political participation in Arab countries represent two basic tools for building Arab capabilities. They provide the conditions needed to realize comprehensive and sustainable development, meet the requirements for positive engagement in international affairs, encourage creative thinking and deal objectively with international changes, notably globalization and the rise of mega economic blocks, as well as catch up with the rapid developments in such areas as technology, communication and information.
Crown Prince Abdullah bin Abdulaziz, Charter to Reform the
Arab Condition, Jan, 2003.
"Some Arab leaders should look into the demands of their people more seriously. The people who start uprisings have some specific demands, and they, of course, do not seek to spread anarchy in their countries…The matter may require a real conciliation between Arab regimes and national opposition to that the two sides shall come out with a number of real reforms at all levels which may ward off the spectre of anarchy and destruction from the country.”
Al-Watan, 29 Jan, 2011